Bismarck Rewane, a renowned economist and CEO of Financial Derivatives, has expressed skepticism over President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s ambitious goal of transforming Nigeria into a $1 trillion economy within the next few years.
According to Rewane, achieving this target in the current economic climate is unrealistic and unlikely within the proposed timeframe of four to five years.
Rewane shared his views during a recent interview on Arise Television, where he critically analysed Nigeria’s economic growth and the feasibility of Tinubu’s vision.
Despite the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growing by 3.19% in the second quarter of 2024, Rewane argued that the growth rate is insufficient to propel Nigeria to a $1 trillion economy.
During the interview, Rewane highlighted the slow pace of Nigeria’s economic growth as a major obstacle to reaching the $1 trillion mark.
“We wanted to be among the top 20 economies in the world, and then we were 26. Today, we are 32, so we have worked our way down the ladder of success,” he remarked, noting the country’s declining position on the global economic stage.
He further explained that to achieve a $1 trillion economy, Nigeria would need an extraordinary growth rate of around 200% over the next four to five years, a feat that he deems “not going to happen.”
Rewane’s assessment contrasts sharply with the optimistic projections made by President Tinubu, who had previously stated that the $1 trillion target was achievable within three years.
Rewane also discussed the various challenges facing Nigeria’s economy, including the impact of global economic shocks.
These external factors, he argued, have exacerbated the difficulties in achieving rapid economic growth. Additionally, while Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio has increased from around 4% to 9%,
Rewane pointed out that this has not translated into any significant improvement in the well-being of the average Nigerian citizen.
“What are the broad economic goals of this economy? We have ambitious targets, but the realities on the ground are different,” Rewane stated.
He emphasised that the country’s economic strategies must be reevaluated in light of the current global and domestic challenges to set more realistic goals.
President Tinubu’s $1 trillion economy target has been a cornerstone of his economic policy since he announced it at the Nigerian Economic Summit in 2023.
Tinubu’s administration has been focused on increasing economic output, boosting foreign investment, and expanding the country’s industrial base to reach this ambitious goal.
However, Rewane’s critique raises important questions about the practicality of these goals, especially considering the current economic indicators. With Nigeria’s GDP at approximately $384 billion, the gap between the present state and the $1 trillion target is significant, requiring unprecedented economic growth to bridge it.
