In a sobering forecast, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) has projected that 13 million more Nigerians are at risk of sliding below the poverty line by 2025. The report, titled “2025 Nigerian Budget and Economic Outlook,” underscores the dire economic challenges that have placed millions of Nigerians on the brink of financial ruin. With rising inflation, escalating interest rates, and the relentless devaluation of the Naira, the nation faces an economic storm that shows no signs of abating.
According to PwC’s analysis, which was released on January 28, 2025, the nation’s ongoing economic struggles could deepen the poverty crisis, pushing even more citizens below the national poverty line. The poverty line is defined by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) as the annual income threshold below which an individual is considered poor, and PwC’s findings suggest that the number of those affected could reach alarming proportions in the coming year.
Deepening Poverty Crisis
The report draws attention to the already worsening poverty levels in Nigeria, citing figures from the 2022 National Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), which revealed that 133 million Nigerians — over 60% of the population — live in multidimensional poverty. This statistic highlights the widespread lack of access to basic necessities like education, healthcare, employment, and adequate housing.
Adding to the alarm, the World Bank’s 2024 update on Nigerian poverty revealed that a staggering 129 million Nigerians now live below the poverty line. This marks a sharp rise from 40.1% of the population in 2018 to 56% in 2024, further cementing Nigeria’s position as one of the world’s poorest nations.
The report also emphasizes the sharp depreciation of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, which plummeted by over 25% from $2,162.6 in 2022 to $1,621.1 in 2023. This dramatic fall paints a grim picture of Nigeria’s shrinking economic fortunes and worsened purchasing power for its citizens.
Inflation: The Silent Culprit
Perhaps the most significant contributor to this rising poverty trend is inflation, which reached a staggering 34.8% by December 2024. The effect has been nothing short of catastrophic for millions of Nigerians. The PwC report highlights how this inflation surge has severely eroded the purchasing power of the average Nigerian, making it increasingly difficult to afford basic items like food, housing, and healthcare.
“It is a vicious cycle,” says Dr. Grace Okeke, an economist and one of the report’s contributors. “Rising inflation means that people’s incomes, especially those in the informal sector, are not enough to meet their daily needs. We are seeing more and more Nigerians struggling to make ends meet.”
Between January and September 2024, food prices surged, with food inflation alone accounting for 34% of the month-on-month increase. Transport costs have also soared, driven by rising fuel prices, further compounding the financial strain on households.
Food Insecurity: A Growing Crisis
The PwC report also draws attention to the alarming rise in food insecurity. With 25.1 million Nigerians affected in 2024, the country is grappling with a food crisis of unprecedented proportions. This number is expected to climb to 33.1 million by 2025 if inflation continues unchecked, further exacerbated by ongoing violence in the northern regions, which are critical to the nation’s food production.
“Food prices are becoming unbearable for many families,” says Amina Yusuf, a mother of four in Kano. “We are forced to reduce the quantity and quality of food we buy just to make sure we can survive the week.”
Government Measures: Too Little, Too Late?
While the Nigerian government has implemented some measures to alleviate the crisis — including an increase in the national minimum wage — these have had little impact. The PwC report indicates that only 4.1% of the working population has benefitted from this wage increase.
The report also points out the inadequacies of Nigeria’s social safety nets, which include conditional cash transfers to vulnerable households. These programs have been criticized for being underfunded, poorly targeted, and inefficiently implemented, with many Nigerians unable to access the support due to a lack of proper identification mechanisms such as the National Identification Number (NIN) or Bank Verification Number (BVN).
“The social safety nets that exist are not enough to address the magnitude of the problem. There needs to be a more comprehensive and targeted intervention to address the root causes of poverty,” says Dr. Emmanuel Ugo, a policy analyst at the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG).
A Call for Urgent Action
As Nigeria grapples with these immense challenges, there is growing concern that the country’s economic growth projections are insufficient to reverse the trend of rising poverty. PwC’s modest GDP growth forecast of 3.0% for 2024 and a more optimistic outlook for 2025 are seen as inadequate given the country’s rapidly growing population and the severe economic pressures.
Experts argue that Nigeria must implement structural reforms to address inflation, stimulate economic growth, and create an environment where job opportunities and social mobility can flourish.
Without urgent action, the PwC report warns that the situation will continue to deteriorate. “We cannot afford to wait any longer,” says Dr. Okeke. “The economic hardship millions of Nigerians are enduring today will only worsen if nothing changes. If we do not act now, we risk undermining the long-term development of the country.”
The Way Forward
To prevent an even graver future, stakeholders are calling for a comprehensive approach to poverty alleviation. This includes targeted social interventions, reforms to improve the effectiveness of social safety nets, and measures to combat inflation and stimulate inclusive economic growth.
“If the government does not prioritize poverty alleviation now, it will be too late in the coming years,” says Dr. Ugo. “The time to act is now, before millions more Nigerians fall into destitution.”
