President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is grappling with significant challenges in his attempt to secure a two-thirds majority approval from the National Assembly for his declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State. The state of emergency, declared by Tinubu on Tuesday, aims to address the escalating political crisis in the south-south state, but the controversial move is already facing a roadblock in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.
The crisis in Rivers State has led to the suspension of the state governor, Siminalayi Fubara, his deputy, Ngozi Odu, and all the members of the state’s House of Assembly for six months. The president appointed a retired vice-admiral, Ibok-Ete Ibas, as the administrator for the state. This decision has sparked intense debates within political circles, as there is no explicit provision in the Nigerian Constitution for the suspension of an elected governor or the appointment of an administrator to replace them.
The legal foundation of the president’s action is under scrutiny. While Section 305 (2) of the Nigerian Constitution allows the president to declare a state of emergency, there is no clear provision in the constitution that authorizes the suspension of an elected governor, as President Tinubu has done in the case of Rivers State.
Additionally, although former President Olusegun Obasanjo set a controversial precedent during his tenure by appointing an administrator in a similar situation, the move was never explicitly supported by the constitution. Legal experts have pointed out that this creates a constitutional grey area that is now being debated in the National Assembly.
Further complicating matters, Section 305 (6) of the constitution mandates that the proclamation of an emergency rule must be approved by a two-thirds majority in both houses of the National Assembly. The House of Representatives, which has 360 members, and the Senate, which has 109 members, must both support the declaration for it to remain in effect.
For the proclamation to stand, President Tinubu needs at least 240 votes in the House of Representatives and 73 votes in the Senate. However, with the opposition parties and some members of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) expressing concerns about the legality and necessity of the move, securing this majority is far from guaranteed.
In addition to legal uncertainties, the National Assembly is facing logistical challenges that could further delay or derail the approval process. A significant number of lawmakers are currently out of the country, either observing the lesser hajj in Saudi Arabia or fasting for Ramadan. This has created difficulties in forming the necessary quorum for voting.
To conduct business in the Senate, a quorum of 36 members is required, while the House of Representatives requires 120 members for a quorum. Given that many lawmakers are abroad, achieving this quorum has proven difficult. Lawmakers have been discussing the possibility of allowing absentee voting, but some members argue that such a move would be unconstitutional.
As the constitution mandates that all members must be physically present to vote, absentee voting—whether via electronic means or through proxies—has no legal standing in this context. Lawmakers have warned that any attempt to sidestep this requirement could lead to legal challenges that may undermine the legitimacy of the vote.
There are also deep political divisions within the National Assembly that are further complicating the situation. Many members of the opposition parties are staunchly opposed to the emergency rule, arguing that it could set a dangerous precedent for future presidential overreach. Some members of the APC, Tinubu’s own party, have expressed similar concerns. They argue that the suspension of an elected governor, along with the appointment of an administrator, could undermine the authority of elected state officials.
An APC senator, who spoke on condition of anonymity, described the president’s decision as a “big miscalculation.” The senator noted that if President Tinubu had coordinated more effectively with the National Assembly, he could have avoided the current predicament. If the president had announced the emergency rule after the National Assembly had adjourned, the constitution would have allowed him ten days to gather the necessary votes. Instead, with the National Assembly still in session, the vote must take place within two days of the proclamation, which is a much tighter timeline.
There are also questions about the extent of consultation between President Tinubu and the National Assembly before the emergency rule was declared. While Akin Rotimi, the spokesperson for the House of Representatives, initially stated that the president had consulted with lawmakers, this claim has been met with skepticism. The president’s letter seeking approval from the National Assembly was not read on the floor of the House on Wednesday, and the Senate stepped down the motion for consideration of the emergency rule during its plenary session.
This failure to consult properly and the rushed timeline have left many lawmakers uncertain about how to proceed. They are questioning whether the declaration is truly necessary or if it is simply a political move that could undermine democracy in Rivers State.
If President Tinubu fails to secure the necessary two-thirds majority in both chambers of the National Assembly by Thursday, as required by the constitution, he will be forced to revoke the emergency rule. This would effectively restore Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his administration to power, as the suspension of the state’s elected officials would no longer be legally binding.
At this point, it remains unclear whether Tinubu’s administration will be able to gather the necessary support to pass the emergency rule. With divisions within the National Assembly, logistical challenges in forming a quorum, and mounting legal and political questions, the outcome of this critical vote remains uncertain.
