The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has warned that the global shortage of aircraft may continue for another decade, with supply levels unlikely to return to normal before 2031–2034. The association said the aviation industry is still struggling with severe delivery delays, a fast-growing backlog of orders, and years of production shortfalls that have left many airlines unable to expand or replace ageing fleets.
In its latest global outlook, IATA noted that although aircraft deliveries began to improve toward the end of 2025 and production is expected to increase in 2026, these gains will not be enough to meet the current demand from airlines around the world.
One of the central concerns raised by IATA is the size of the current order backlog. The association revealed that airlines have placed orders for more than 17,000 aircraft, a number that represents nearly 12 years of production based on current manufacturing capacity. This is far above the long-term benchmark, where backlogs typically account for only 30 to 40 percent of the active global fleet.
Aircraft manufacturers such as Airbus and Boeing are still recovering from supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, labour shortages, parts delays, and regulatory issues. Many engine suppliers are also struggling to meet production targets due to shortages of key components, as well as the need for heavy inspections and repairs on certain engine models.
These combined problems, IATA explained, have created a “structural mismatch” between what airlines need and what manufacturers can deliver.
“The availability of aircraft remains one of the most significant constraints on industry growth,” the association said. “While deliveries picked up in late 2025 and production is set to increase next year, demand is expected to outpace the supply of aircraft and engines.”
According to IATA, the global aviation industry is already dealing with delivery shortfalls of at least 5,300 aircraft over the past five years. These shortfalls represent planes that were originally scheduled for delivery but were delayed or cancelled due to supply chain issues.
As a result, many airlines have been forced to keep older planes in service for longer than planned. This has pushed the average age of global fleets to 15.1 years, which is higher than in previous decades. Passenger aircraft now average 12.8 years, while cargo fleets — which have traditionally operated older aircraft — now average nearly 20 years.
Industry analysts say that older aircraft are more expensive to maintain and consume more fuel, raising operational costs for airlines at a time when many carriers are still recovering from financial losses caused by the pandemic and high fuel prices.
Despite the aircraft shortage, IATA noted that more than 5,000 aircraft remain in storage around the world. Many of these planes were grounded during the pandemic, while others are awaiting maintenance, engine replacements, or regulatory clearance. Some aircraft types, such as older wide-body models, are no longer in high demand, contributing to storage numbers.
IATA said the high number of stored aircraft is a clear sign that the global supply chain remains inefficient. Some airlines are unable to bring these planes back into service quickly due to shortages of spare parts, limited maintenance capacity, and long waiting times for engine repairs.
The aircraft shortage has already started affecting airline schedules, ticket prices, and expansion plans. With limited aircraft available, many airlines are cutting back on route growth, delaying the launch of new destinations, or reducing flight frequencies. This could mean fewer travel options and higher fares for passengers in the coming years.
In developing regions such as Africa, where demand for air travel is rising, the shortage may slow down aviation growth. African airlines already face challenges such as high operating costs, limited financing options, and weaker infrastructure. The difficulty in acquiring new aircraft may worsen these problems.
For Nigeria and other West African nations, where airlines are trying to expand regional operations, the shortage could force carriers to rely on older aircraft for longer periods. This may increase maintenance costs and reduce efficiency.
Aircraft manufacturers are now under pressure to increase production without compromising safety or quality. However, ramping up production is not simple. Manufacturers rely on a long and complex supply chain that includes thousands of suppliers around the world.
In recent years, many suppliers have faced labour shortages, financial difficulties, and disruptions in access to raw materials. Engine manufacturers, particularly those producing modern fuel-efficient engines, have also struggled with technical challenges and increased maintenance demands.
IATA said these issues will take years to resolve fully, meaning airlines should expect continued tight supply until the early 2030s.
Despite the challenges, IATA expects global air travel demand to continue rising as economies grow, tourism expands, and business travel recovers. Airlines are placing large orders for new aircraft to replace older fleets and improve fuel efficiency in line with global climate goals.
However, without increased production capacity and a more stable supply chain, the aviation industry may face a prolonged period of imbalance between aircraft supply and demand.
For now, airlines are being advised to adjust their fleet strategies, maintain older aircraft safely, and plan for gradual rather than rapid expansion.
