As preparations begin ahead of the 2027 general elections, former Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on political matters, Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, has warned that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) may be overestimating its chances of re-election.
Baba-Ahmed said recent defections of governors and top politicians from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the APC do not guarantee electoral victory. He warned that poor governance, growing public dissatisfaction, and arrogance within the ruling party could lead to serious setbacks at the polls.
The former presidential aide made these comments on Tuesday while appearing on Politics Today, a political programme on Channels Television. During the interview, he urged the APC to reconnect with ordinary Nigerians and avoid relying solely on political power, money, and defectors to win elections.
In recent months, Nigeria’s political space has witnessed a wave of defections to the APC. Several PDP governors across different regions of the country have switched allegiance to the ruling party. Among them are Governor Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom State, Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State, Douye Diri of Bayelsa State, Peter Mbah of Enugu State, Agbu Kefas of Taraba State, and most recently, Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State.
There are also strong indications that the governor of Kano State may soon defect to the APC, according to party leaders in the state. Beyond governors, many senators, members of the House of Representatives, state lawmakers, former governors, former ministers, and influential party leaders have also crossed over to the ruling party.
While many of the defectors have explained their moves as being driven by ideology, national interest, or internal crises within the PDP, critics believe the main motivation is political survival and the desire to secure re-election in 2027.
Baba-Ahmed challenged the thinking behind these defections, saying the APC is making dangerous assumptions about political power and voter behaviour.
“Defection does not guarantee APC’s re-election,” he said. “I think the assumptions and the calculations of the APC are fundamentally flawed.”
According to him, the ruling party wrongly believes that controlling governors, lawmakers, and political structures across the country automatically translates to victory at the polls.
“They think they have all the governors in their kitty, all the legislators, the entire country,” he said. “The mistake they make is assuming that the opposition is weak and that having all the governors and all the money in the world will automatically bring them back to power. Then they have to face the people.”
Baba-Ahmed explained that what many politicians refer to as “party structures” often simply means access to money and influence, not genuine grassroots support.
“When I talk about structures, I am basically talking about money,” he said. “The money to keep loyalists in place, the money for loyalists to mobilise votes on election day.”
He warned that relying on money and political alignment alone is risky, especially if elections are conducted freely and fairly.
“If what we see here represents the actual spread of the APC across the country, two things have to happen,” he said. “One, you have to hope that there are credible, free, and fair elections so that the votes of the people reflect this spread.”
Baba-Ahmed drew attention to the 2015 general election, when the APC defeated the then-ruling PDP, saying the circumstances were very different.
“I was involved in the 2015 elections,” he said. “We never had anything like this. President Buhari painted the entire North with APC colours and got huge numbers of votes from other parts of the country. People voted against politicians, and he won that election against the PDP.”
He stressed that Buhari’s victory in 2015 was driven largely by public anger and a desire for change, not by mass defections of politicians.
According to Baba-Ahmed, the APC is now making the mistake of believing that the presence of many powerful politicians guarantees automatic support from the people.
“They still have a huge amount of work to do,” he said. “They must do two basic things, which are very difficult.”
The first, he said, is to improve how Nigerians see the party’s performance in government.
“Speaking from the street, I can tell you they have performed poorly,” he said. “They do not command the kind of support among ordinary people that they think they have.”
He described the APC as increasingly disconnected from the average Nigerian, saying the party has become dominated by elites and officeholders.
“The APC is presently very unpopular,” Baba-Ahmed said. “It is a party of the elite, a party of officeholders, a party of people who are virtually guaranteed to return to power. That is very dangerous thinking.”
He warned that assuming voters can be bought or controlled through money and political power could backfire badly.
“If they believe that they do not need to convince Nigerians, and that money and politicians alone will buy votes, they are mistaken,” he said. “Citizens can reach a breaking point and reject such assumptions.”
The second major issue, according to Baba-Ahmed, is the integrity of the electoral process. He stressed that the credibility of the 2027 elections will play a major role in determining the outcome.
“It is vital that the 2027 elections are conducted in a free, credible, and transparent manner,” he said. “Otherwise, no matter how large the APC’s political network is, attempts to manipulate the process could backfire.”
He cautioned against tampering with election technology and processes, noting that while systems for vote transmission may improve, no system is completely foolproof.
“Politicians may assume they have structures in place and that victory is guaranteed,” he said. “But they should not tamper with the electoral process.”
Baba-Ahmed also questioned the value of relying on defecting governors to deliver votes, noting that many of them face serious governance challenges in their states.
“Many governors have massive problems in their states, and some have defected,” he said. “Now, in a safe room, they assume that their new APC affiliation guarantees victory.”
He argued that such actions could anger voters rather than win their support.
“They are doubly offending the population,” he said. “They have not performed well, and they now wear a different jersey, thinking they can win against their former team.”
According to Baba-Ahmed, complacency and arrogance are the biggest dangers facing the APC as it moves toward 2027.
“Complacency and arrogance are the two main risks that can result from this kind of political spread,” he said. “I would argue that this has already contributed to setbacks in some areas.”
