A chieftain of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Dele Momodu, has predicted that President Bola Tinubu could lose his re-election bid in 2027, expressing confidence that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has what it takes to emerge victorious if current political trends continue.
Momodu made the remarks during an interview on Nevon Media with broadcaster Oseni Rufai on Friday, where he analysed the possible outcome of the next presidential election and the strengths of the major contenders expected to be in the race.
According to him, the 2027 presidential contest will not be an easy one for President Tinubu, who won the 2023 election and is widely expected to seek a second term in office.
The publisher and politician said Atiku, who is associated with the ADC in the emerging opposition coalition, stands a strong chance of winning if he secures overwhelming support in the North and performs well enough in the southern part of the country.
“As I predicted, Atiku will win the majority of the North, and if he is able to compete favourably in the South, it will be over for President Tinubu and Peter Obi,” Momodu said during the interview.
He added that the former vice president could meet the constitutional requirements needed to become president if he maintains a strong grip on northern votes.
“Atiku will secure at least 25 per cent of the votes in 26 states while also dominating the North, which is where the bulk of the votes are,” he stated.
Momodu argued that the voting strength of the northern region could prove decisive in the next election if opposition forces are able to unite behind a common candidate.
Under Nigeria’s Constitution, a presidential candidate is not declared winner simply by obtaining the highest number of votes nationwide. The candidate must also secure at least 25 per cent of votes cast in no fewer than two-thirds of the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory.
With 36 states in the country, this means a candidate must achieve the required spread in at least 24 states, in addition to winning the highest number of valid votes.
Momodu said he believes Atiku is well positioned to satisfy this condition because of his long-standing political influence in the North and his nationwide political network built over decades.
He maintained that if the former vice president succeeds in attracting enough support from voters in the South, the election could tilt in his favour.
Momodu’s comments have reignited discussions about the likely shape of the 2027 presidential contest, which many analysts believe could be another three-way battle involving President Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party’s Peter Obi.
The three politicians were the major contenders in the 2023 presidential election.
President Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) was declared winner of that election after securing the highest number of votes nationwide. He benefited from a strong support base in the South-West and recorded significant votes across other parts of the country.
Atiku, who contested on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), came second, while Obi of the Labour Party finished third after recording impressive performances in several states, particularly among young and urban voters.
The outcome of the 2023 election led to legal challenges from both Atiku and Obi, who questioned the conduct and results of the poll. However, the courts upheld Tinubu’s victory, paving the way for his inauguration on May 29, 2023.
Although the 2027 election is still months away, political activities have gradually intensified, with parties and politicians already positioning themselves ahead of the contest.
Talks of opposition alliances and possible defections have dominated the political space in recent months as leaders seek strategies to challenge the ruling APC.
Momodu, a former presidential aspirant and long-time political commentator, has been vocal about the need for opposition parties to build a formidable front capable of defeating the incumbent administration.
His latest prediction reflects the confidence within sections of the opposition that President Tinubu can be unseated if votes against the ruling party are consolidated behind one candidate.
However, supporters of the President argue that Tinubu remains a formidable political force with a nationwide structure and the advantage of incumbency. They insist that ongoing reforms by the administration could strengthen his chances of securing another term.
Similarly, supporters of Peter Obi believe the former Anambra State governor remains a major factor in Nigeria’s political landscape and could alter the calculations of both the APC and the opposition coalition.
With more than a year to the next general election, the political landscape is expected to witness further realignments, negotiations and intense campaigns.