Former Kogi West Senator, Dino Melaye, has warned President Bola Tinubu against taking his chances in the 2027 presidential election for granted, saying political endorsements and calculations do not determine the final outcome of events.
Melaye, a chieftain of the African Democratic Congress, ADC, gave the warning on Wednesday while referring to the fate of the late former military Head of State, General Sani Abacha.
The former lawmaker said Abacha appeared to have secured an easy path to becoming Nigeria’s civilian president in 1998 after all five political parties then registered in the country endorsed him as their presidential candidate.
However, Abacha died suddenly on June 8, 1998, before the planned transition to civilian rule could be completed.
In a post on X, Melaye urged Tinubu to remember what happened to Abacha, stressing that there was a “God factor” in human affairs that political leaders should not ignore.
“There is a God factor in the affairs of men. Tinubu does not understand this. Abacha was endorsed by all the five political parties at that time,” he wrote.
“There was no contest, he was already cruising to become a civilian president. God picked His phone and called Abacha.
“When God calls you, there is no network failure. That God has not gone on omugo, Tinubu watch it.”
Melaye’s comment comes as political activities and realignments intensify ahead of the 2027 general elections, with political parties and major figures already positioning themselves for the contest.
The former senator is now a leading figure in the ADC, one of the opposition platforms seeking to challenge the dominance of the ruling All Progressives Congress in the next presidential election.
His warning appeared to suggest that the growing political support for Tinubu and the strength of the APC should not be seen as a guarantee of victory in 2027.
The ADC has been gaining attention as opposition politicians seek a common platform ahead of the next general election. The party has attracted several prominent politicians and political figures who are opposed to the Tinubu administration.
Tinubu, who was elected president in 2023 on the platform of the APC, is expected to seek a second term in 2027. His supporters have already begun mobilising around his administration and his expected re-election bid.
The President has repeatedly defended the policies of his administration, particularly the economic reforms introduced since he assumed office. His government has removed the petrol subsidy and changed the foreign exchange system, measures officials say are aimed at putting the economy on a stronger footing.
However, opposition parties and critics have continued to attack the administration over the rising cost of living, hardship, insecurity and other challenges facing Nigerians.
The 2027 election is therefore expected to be highly competitive, with political parties working to build alliances and strengthen their structures ahead of the polls.
Melaye’s reference to Abacha carries a strong historical message.
In 1998, Nigeria was still under military rule, with Abacha serving as Head of State after taking power in 1993. His government had begun a transition program which was expected to lead to the return of civilian rule.
By April 1998, all five political parties approved by the military government had adopted Abacha as their presidential candidate. Contemporary reports said the development left him as the only legal presidential candidate at the time, making his path to civilian presidency appear almost certain.
The five parties were the Congress for National Consensus, Democratic Party of Nigeria, Grassroots Democratic Movement, National Centre Party of Nigeria and United Nigeria Congress Party. All eventually backed Abacha, despite concerns among pro-democracy groups that the transition programme was designed to keep him in power.
Abacha, however, died suddenly in June 1998, less than two months after the five parties had endorsed him. His death brought an abrupt end to his plan to become a civilian president.
Following his death, General Abdulsalami Abubakar became Head of State and began a fresh transition programme that eventually led to the restoration of democratic rule in 1999.
Melaye used the historical development to make his point that political power can change unexpectedly, regardless of the level of support a politician enjoys.
His statement also reflects the growing political debate over the 2027 election, with opposition figures warning the ruling party against relying solely on its current political strength.
The ADC and other opposition groups are expected to intensify their campaigns in the months ahead as the election draws closer.
While Melaye did not directly state that Tinubu would suffer the same fate as Abacha, his reference to the former military ruler was clearly intended as a warning that political plans can be disrupted by events beyond the control of politicians.
The former senator ended his message with a religious reference, saying the same God who, in his view, stopped Abacha’s political ambition could still alter the political calculations surrounding the 2027 election.
As of the time of filing this report, neither President Tinubu nor the Presidency had publicly responded to Melaye’s statement.