The Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Farouk Ahmed, has stated that the erratic tariff policies implemented by former U.S. President Donald Trump are a major factor behind the recent decline in global crude oil prices. Ahmed, speaking at a press conference in the Presidential Villa, Abuja, on Tuesday, attributed the volatility in the oil market to Trump’s unpredictable trade and tariff policies, warning that these have destabilized international markets and created an atmosphere of uncertainty for investors.
According to Ahmed, the instability caused by the Trump administration’s trade policies—particularly tariffs imposed on major global economies such as China and other key oil-producing nations—has disrupted the balance between global demand and supply. This disruption, he argued, has been particularly detrimental to the oil sector, where demand forecasting and supply chain management are crucial.
“The global oil market today is reacting sharply to the erratic tariffing policies of the American government. These tariffs are not only aimed at China but are sweeping across multiple countries and regions. They are unsettling the balance of demand and supply, particularly in the energy sector,” Ahmed said, addressing journalists at the Presidential Villa.
A major concern, according to Ahmed, is the unpredictability of Trump’s trade stance. He noted that one of the most significant issues is the inconsistency in U.S. trade policy: “One day, a major policy is announced; the next, it is reversed or escalated. This kind of back-and-forth has made it almost impossible for investors to make long-term plans.”
Ahmed’s comments reflect growing concerns in global markets about the lasting effects of protectionist policies, which have contributed to rising uncertainty and a lack of investor confidence. This volatility has been particularly damaging to oil prices, which have struggled to stabilize due to both the erratic policies of the U.S. government and other global factors. The Nigerian regulator added that Trump’s trade policies have likely contributed to the downward pressure on crude oil prices, potentially pushing prices below the $50-per-barrel threshold.
The sharp drop in crude oil prices has been a significant concern for oil-dependent countries like Nigeria, where crude oil exports form the backbone of government revenue and foreign exchange inflows. As one of the top oil producers in Africa, Nigeria is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices, as the country relies heavily on the oil sector to fund its economy and development projects.
Ahmed expressed his worries about the negative effects of lower oil prices on Nigeria’s economic prospects, emphasizing that the country’s reliance on crude oil exports leaves it highly susceptible to external shocks like the ones caused by Trump’s policies. He noted that Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy faces increasing pressure due to volatile global markets, which pose challenges for revenue generation and economic growth.
The NMDPRA CEO also pointed out that Nigeria’s refineries have not been able to meet local demand for petroleum products, which is currently estimated at 50 million liters per day. However, he highlighted some positive developments aimed at addressing the country’s energy needs, particularly in relation to domestic refining capacity.
In a bid to boost local production and reduce dependence on imported fuel, the Nigerian government has approved refining licenses to 83 companies with a combined total refining capacity of 1.124 million barrels per day. Of these, eight refineries have received Licenses to Operate (LTO), 30 refineries have Licenses to Construct (LTC), and 40 refineries have Licenses to Establish (LTE).
Ahmed described the increase in refining capacity as a major step toward energy self-sufficiency. He also highlighted that the government’s efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s refineries and promote modular refinery projects are yielding positive results.
One of the major achievements Ahmed shared was the significant drop in Nigeria’s petrol imports, which decreased from 44.6 million liters per day in August 2024 to just 14.7 million liters per day by April 13, 2025—a reduction of nearly 30 million liters daily. This reduction was attributed to increased domestic refining capacity, with local refineries ramping up production to meet the growing demand.
The positive shift in local refining output is particularly notable. By early April 2025, Nigeria’s refineries were producing 26.2 million liters per day, a substantial increase from just 3.4 million liters in September 2024, marking the first month with measurable output from the country’s refineries.
This improvement is mainly due to the gradual restart of the Port Harcourt Refining Company, as well as the contributions from modular refinery operators. The restart of the Port Harcourt refinery, one of Nigeria’s largest refineries, and the progress made by modular refineries are seen as crucial steps in the government’s effort to achieve energy self-sufficiency and reduce reliance on imported fuel.
Ahmed described the surge in domestic production as a positive development for Nigeria’s energy sector. “After contributing virtually nothing in August, local refineries ramped up production to 26.2 million liters per day by early April. This marks a significant jump from just 3.4 million liters recorded in September—the first month with measurable output,” he said.
The Nigerian government’s focus on increasing local refining capacity and reducing fuel imports is part of a broader strategy to strengthen the country’s energy security and reduce its dependence on global oil price fluctuations. However, the success of this strategy depends on continued investment in domestic refineries and modular refinery projects, as well as maintaining stability in the global oil market.
While the recent tariff policies by the U.S. have introduced uncertainties into the global oil market, Nigeria’s efforts to improve local refining capacity may serve as a safeguard against the volatility of global oil prices. As Nigeria continues to work toward energy self-sufficiency, it will be crucial for the government to manage both domestic and international factors that affect oil prices.
