As Nigeria edges closer to the 2027 general elections, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu appears to be methodically dismantling any serious political challenge to his hold on power. The opposition landscape is in tatters, with internal crises plaguing nearly every major party, key defections weakening their ranks, and many potential challengers either compromised, co-opted, or silenced. What emerges is a political terrain increasingly tilted in favour of the incumbent, echoing the pre-election dominance seen during the Obasanjo—but with a distinctly Tinubu style of political evisceration.
Since assuming office in May 2023, Tinubu has not only focused on economic reforms and foreign diplomacy but has also quietly and effectively neutralised threats from across the political aisle. The once-vocal and vibrant opposition parties—the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP), and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP)—have suffered blows, many self-inflicted, but most opportunistically exploited by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
In the PDP, long-standing internal divisions have deepened. The party still reels from the fallout of the 2023 election, where the rift between northern and southern factions weakened its presidential bid. Atiku Abubakar’s insistence on running again created tension with younger elements and governors who felt alienated. The G5 governors, once seen as kingmakers, have lost political momentum, with some drifting closer to Tinubu’s orbit, either through quiet rapprochement or outright defection.
Labour Party, which surged to relevance in 2023 through Peter Obi’s candidacy, is now locked in a debilitating leadership crisis. Factions loyal to Julius Abure and other party elders have been engaged in court battles, dragging the party into disrepute and confusion. Obi, for all his popularity among youth and urban voters, remains aloof from party-building efforts and has largely withdrawn into technocratic policy conversations, leaving the LP base disillusioned and disorganised.
The NNPP, once the platform of choice for former Kano governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, has not fared better. Kwankwaso’s flirtation with Tinubu earlier this year, followed by accusations of betrayal within his own party, has fragmented his support base in Kano—a key battleground state. What was billed as a potential third force in Nigerian politics is now increasingly viewed as a regional faction in decline.
A key weapon in Tinubu’s arsenal has been the strategic poaching of opposition figures. Through a mix of political appointments, court-induced instability, and elite persuasion, Tinubu has continued the APC tradition of swelling its ranks with defectors.
High-profile politicians, including PDP senators and LP lawmakers, have switched allegiance in the last year. Some, such as former Rivers Governor Nyesom Wike, were already politically aligned with Tinubu even before the elections, but others have crossed over post-2023, lured by federal appointments or seeking protection from EFCC probes and political irrelevance in a weakened opposition.
The defection of key lawmakers from the South-East and North-Central to the APC has eroded the opposition’s ability to serve as a robust check on executive power in the National Assembly. This lopsided configuration has not only emboldened Tinubu but also allowed his administration to push through controversial reforms—such as fuel subsidy removal and currency floatation—with little organised resistance.
Tinubu, long famed for his political network and kingmaker role in Lagos, has expanded this model nationally. Patronage, appointments, and reward-based loyalty have become tools to deepen his reach into state politics. The federal character principle, which mandates balance in national appointments, has been used tactically to secure new allies in states previously hostile to APC control.
He has appointed loyalists to key positions across boards, parastatals, and ministries, many of whom are tasked not only with administrative duties but with shoring up support for 2027. From the South-South to the North-East, the ruling party is planting loyal figures who can deliver both political support and grassroots mobilisation.
State governors under APC have also become powerful proxies in this consolidation. Through the Nigerian Governors Forum and internal party structures, Tinubu has maintained a tight grip on policy consensus, ensuring that dissent within the APC is minimal or swiftly crushed.
Despite these manoeuvres, the biggest contributor to the opposition’s decline has been their own inability to regroup and re-strategise after the 2023 elections. There have been no serious coalitions formed between the PDP, LP, and NNPP—despite common grievances and shared electoral interests.
Atiku and Obi, the two biggest opposition figures, have not found common ground. While Atiku continues to speak out on national issues, he lacks the grassroots momentum of 2019. Obi, on the other hand, has failed to build a national structure around his 2023 gains and now faces questions about his long-term political viability. His continued reliance on his moral appeal, without a clear strategy for political mobilization, limits his effectiveness.
Meanwhile, the youth coalition that propelled the “Obidient” movement has splintered, distracted by economic hardship and disenchantment with the political process. Civil society, once a force for electoral transparency and political accountability, appears fatigued, and donor funding has dried up for many watchdog NGOs.
Tinubu’s political machine now turns toward 2027 with a clear advantage. His recent moves suggest he is not merely preparing for re-election but for total dominance of the political landscape. This includes attempts to influence the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and to shape the internal rules of major opposition parties through proxies.
However, this consolidation is not without risks. The economic challenges Nigeria faces—rising inflation, unemployment, insecurity, and popular discontent—could galvanise a fresh wave of political rebellion. Youth frustration remains palpable, and with the right leadership, could once again be channelled into a political movement as seen in 2020 with #EndSARS and in 2023 with LP.
But for now, Tinubu stands several steps ahead. As 2027 draws near, it is becoming increasingly clear that any meaningful challenge to his power will require an opposition that is not only unified but deeply strategic, something that seems far-fetched in the current political climate.
