A former political adviser to President Bola Tinubu, Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, has rejected claims that the defeat of the All Progressives Congress in the Osun State governorship election was a political trade-off for Governor Ademola Adeleke’s support for Tinubu ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Baba-Ahmed said the outcome of Saturday’s election reflected the choice of Osun voters and insisted that the APC could be defeated in a free and fair election.
He also predicted that the people of the state would reject the ruling party again in the 2027 general election.
Adeleke, the candidate of the Accord Party, won the closely contested election with 511,067 votes.
The APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, came second with 444,815 votes, while Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress finished third with 17,180 votes.
The result attracted attention because of the wider political battle between the PDP and APC ahead of the 2027 elections.
Before the governorship election, Adeleke and his Accord Party had endorsed President Tinubu for the 2027 presidential election, despite Adeleke being a PDP governor.
The endorsement had generated political debate, with some observers linking the governor’s support for Tinubu to developments involving the Federal Government and the Osun State Government.
However, Baba-Ahmed said he did not subscribe to the claim that Adeleke’s support for Tinubu had resulted in an arrangement that allowed him to defeat the APC in the state election.
In a post on X, he said he preferred to believe that the Accord Party won the election fairly and that the APC could be defeated through a credible electoral process.
“I am not one of those supporting the conspiracy theory that the APC’s defeat in the Osun governorship election is a trade-off for the governor’s support for Tinubu in 2027,” he wrote.
“I prefer to believe Accord Party won fairly. I believe the APC can be defeated in fair elections. Osun State will reject it in 2027.”
Baba-Ahmed’s comments came against the background of growing political realignment ahead of the 2027 elections, with politicians and political groups forming alliances across party lines.
The former adviser also criticised Tinubu’s intervention in the dispute between the Osun State Government and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission over the freezing of the state government’s bank accounts.
The EFCC had restricted access to the accounts as part of its activities, leading to a legal challenge by the Osun Government.
The development became a major political issue ahead of the governorship election, with Adeleke accusing the anti-graft agency of political motives.
The governor had argued that the freezing of the accounts affected the operations of the state government.
The controversy also attracted the intervention of President Tinubu, who directed the EFCC to lift the restrictions on the accounts and halt the related legal action.
Following the intervention, Adeleke said he had instructed the state Attorney General to withdraw the lawsuit against the EFCC.
Baba-Ahmed, however, questioned the manner in which the President intervened in the matter.
“The clumsy intervention by PBAT on EFCC/Osun State frozen funds just made everything worse,” he said.
PBAT is a reference commonly used for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Baba-Ahmed argued that the President, despite being the head of the Federal Government, did not have the power to stop the operations of an independent anti-corruption agency.
“PBAT, even as a maximum president, has no power to stop EFCC’s operations,” he said.
He also criticised the EFCC, saying the agency had damaged its own credibility through its handling of the matter.
“EFCC itself has damaged itself badly. It will be difficult not to see a good cop-bad cop game here,” he added.
The dispute between the Osun Government and the EFCC had become part of the larger political tension surrounding the state election.
Adeleke and his supporters had accused the Federal Government of using its agencies against the state government, while the APC maintained that the EFCC was carrying out its statutory responsibilities.
The election itself was closely watched because of the importance of Osun to both major political parties.
Adeleke’s victory gave the Accord Party control of the state for another term and represented a setback for the APC, which had hoped to regain the governorship.
The margin between the two leading candidates was also significant. Adeleke defeated Oyebamiji by 66,252 votes, according to the announced results.
The outcome is expected to have implications for the political contest ahead of 2027, particularly as opposition parties and groups seek to challenge the APC at the national level.
For the APC, the Osun result is another reminder of the difficulty of retaining political control in states where the opposition remains strong.
For Adeleke, the victory provides an opportunity to consolidate his administration and strengthen his political influence ahead of the next general election.
His endorsement of Tinubu, however, means that the governor’s political relationship with the President is likely to remain a subject of discussion as 2027 approaches.
Baba-Ahmed’s comments also highlight the growing debate over whether political alliances ahead of the next presidential election will affect state-level contests.
While Adeleke has backed Tinubu for the presidency, the Osun governorship election was contested largely along state political lines, with the governor seeking another term against the APC candidate.
Baba-Ahmed maintained that the result should therefore be viewed as an electoral victory rather than the outcome of a secret political agreement.
He also suggested that the APC should not assume that its control at the federal level would automatically translate into electoral victories in the states.